by Mkrtich Gevorkyan
With the 2026 Armenian parliamentary elections less than eight months away, the political atmosphere in Armenia is gradually beginning to intensify. Though the elections are still very far away by Armenian standards, several candidates are already beginning to position themselves for prominent roles in the electoral campaign. Indeed, the parliamentary elections on June 7, 2026 will determine not only partisan/coalition control of the Armenian National Assembly, but also will determine the prime minister. The last elections in 2021 resulted in Nikol Pashinyan retaining his position as prime minister. He will attempt to hold on to power yet again next year, with an especially significant political agenda at stake. Though it is cliche in any country to call the current elections “the most important ever”, the next elections will truly and without exaggeration be among the most consequential in modern Armenian history. Issues such as Armenian policy towards Artsakh, conflict with Azerbaijan and Turkey, relations with Russia, the European Union, and United States, and even the domestic structure of the Republic of Armenia hang in the balance, with constitutional amendments and a referendum depending on the election results.
Civil Contract — Nikol Pashinyan
The current ruling party in Armenia is the Civil Contract party, led by Nikol Pashinyan. This party holds the majority position in the National Assembly with 69 seats out of 107, having won 53.95% of the vote in the last parliamentary elections in 2021. It has positioned itself since assuming power in the aftermath of the 2018 “Velvet Revolution” as the party of reform, modernization, and economic progress in Armenia. The party and Pashinyan have politically juxtaposed themselves against the so-called “old guard”, the factions that led Armenia from its independence in 1991 until Pashinyan’s 2018 seizure of power. They portray major opposition figures, especially Pashinyan’s archenemy former president Robert Kocharyan, as seeking to pull Armenia backwards towards its more economically depressed post-Soviet times. Nonetheless, the party may itself seem reminiscent of Soviet times, with its increasingly obvious disdain for ideological dissent and heavy-handed political repression, such as against the traditional Armenian Church. Moreover, the party has presided over the complete defeat of ethnically Armenian Artsakh, an issue of tremendous pain for the Armenian people. Because of this, the party has received very low approval ratings from the few recent polls that have been conducted in Armenia this year, with one poll showing Civil Contract at 17% and Nikol Pashinyan at 13%, while another poll showed Civil Contract as low as 11.5%. It appears extremely unlikely that Civil Contract will match their 2021 electoral result of 53.95%; it appears that their vote share will definitely be lower next year. Nonetheless, Pashinyan could still win the election if the opposition proves even more unpopular than the current government, or if heavy electoral interference hinders the conduct of a fair election, as seems increasingly plausible given Pashinyan and his allies’ authoritarian tendencies. Especially in light of recent brazen arrests of opposition figures, such as the mayor of Gyumri, it is clear that Pashinyan has no intention of having a fair and honest election.
The Civil Contract Party’s plan for the next elections hinges on massive reform packages, with promises to reorganize the entire constitutional system of Armenia into a new “Fourth Republic”, and to integrate Armenia into Western political and economic institutions, most prominently the European Union. All of this would first depend, however, on finalizing the peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which Pashinyan has taken large steps towards doing at events like the Washington D.C. “peace signing ceremony” with Donald Trump.
Peace with Azerbaijan is a positive way to present what is in fact a very negative reality: the military defeat of Armenia and destruction of Artsakh. The Pashinyan government’s policy thus amounts to consolidating Azerbaijan’s victory, essentially, having Armenia admit defeat and move on. The opposition naturally recoils at such betrayal of the struggle Armenians have waged for generations Yet supporters of Pashinyan may assert that admitting defeat and trying to develop economic ties with Armenia’s enemies may be the only way forward for Armenia to have a chance of prospering. All of this is highly controversial in Armenia, and a matter of great pain for the Armenian people. Many may view Pashinyan’s vision of Armenia at peace with its neighbors, with a growing economy, and joining Western institutions like the EU as a good vision in theory but very unrealistic and counterproductive in reality. After all, EU membership is currently not even remotely close to being on the table for Armenia, as even Pashinyan has indirectly conceded, while the aspiration for it may cause significant harm to Armenia’s already existing foreign partnerships, especially with Russia. Moreover, peace with Azerbaijan may sound good in theory, but no matter how much Pashinyan may want that, Azerbaijan still seems uninterested in genuine peace, instead advancing ever-more aggressive narratives against Armenian sovereign territory, such as the “Zangezur Corridor” narrative. Thus, Pashinyan’s vision may be naive at best, and at worst actively destructive of Armenian interests.
Armenia Alliance — Robert Kocharyan
The largest opposition faction in the Armenian National Assembly since the last elections in 2021 has been the Armenia Alliance (“Hayastan Dashink”). This alliance was created by merging multiple anti-Pashinyan opposition groups in the aftermath of the widespread protests against Pashinyan that occurred in Armenia following defeat in the 2020 Artsakh war. The original parties that merged to form the alliance were the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, the Reborn Armenia party, and the One Armenia party. This alliance is now led by the former President of Armenia, Robert Kocharyan, who is widely considered Nikol Pashinyan’s most bitter rival, with Pashinyan even attempting to imprison him under charges of “attempting to overthrow the constitution” that failed to stand up in court.
On October 6, former President Kocharyan held a press conference to officially announce his electoral campaign for the 2026 Armenian elections. With the elections still quite far away, Kocharyan stated he plans for his team to have the full-fledged campaign in operation by February. Kocharyan also spoke out against Pashinyan’s Civil Contract government, criticizing it across the full spectrum of current Armenian issues: for its handling of Azerbaijan, for its EU plans, and for its handling of the economy. Finally, Kocharyan delivered especially sharp criticism of Pashinyan’s “Trump Route” plan: “Do you still believe everything that Nikol Pashinyan speaks about? Second, do you think that the Republic of Armenia will be able to dictate anything regarding that road behind which the United States will stand? Really? Are we that naïve? It’s not going to happen.” Kocharyan expressed the belief that Armenia will have no sovereignty over the operation of the Trump Route, which will be under the control of US and Azerbaijani interests.
As the leader of the Armenia Alliance faction, Kocharyan will strive to position himself as the primary alternative to Pashinyan, the leader of the opposition. This was also his role during the 2021 parliamentary elections, in which his Armenia Alliance received 21.11% of the vote, thereby securing 29 seats in the National Assembly. This electoral result placed the Armenia Alliance quite far behind the ruling Civil Contract Party, however, several events have occurred since then that have likely severely damaged the Civil Contract Party’s popularity and may open the door for a stronger result for opposition parties, including the Armenia Alliance, in the 2026 elections. As mentioned previously, the destruction of Artsakh in 2023 is an extremely damaging issue for the current government of Pashinyan, which presided over it. Signs of the growing strength of the opposition have been seen since then, such as in the local elections in Gyumri where the Civil Contract Party was voted out of power.
Robert Kocharyan had previously served as the second president of the Republic of Armenia from 1998 to 2008. He presided over a period of gradual economic recovery after the economic devastation of the 1990s, though this recovery was perhaps not fast enough for his critics. Opponents of Kocharyan associate his presidency with a period of lesser prosperity in Armenia as the country was still struggling within its post-Soviet recovery. Nonetheless, during Kocharyan’s presidency the Armenian economy grew and Armenians still held Artsakh.
Wings of Unity – Armen Tatoyan
The former Human Rights Ombudsman of the Republic of Armenia, Armen Tatoyan, announced his intention to campaign for political office in a video he posted on social media on October 5. A few days later, on October 9, Tatoyan formally presented the creation of his new political organization, called “Wings of Unity”. While Pashinyan and Kocharyan are often viewed as the two “established” candidates from the government and opposition, respectively, Tatoyan enters the race as an outside force, bringing a blend of political views to the table. Tatoyan rejects both established paths: “They are imposing two paths on us and saying that everything has already been decided, while sowing disenfranchisement and hatred towards one another.” Tatoyan went on to explain that he had given his career to legal work for human rights, but under current circumstances, this approach no longer produces results and it became necessary for him to attempt to resolve Armenian issues on the political level. “Together we must restore the broken political system and form a legal state, building a country of opportunities.”
Because Tatoyan enters the campaign as an outside candidate, there is no previous data on his popularity ratings within the Armenian electorate, though his announcement on social media did generate significant engagement. Tatoyan has recently criticized the Pashinyan government for its authoritarianism and campaign against the Church, and has consistently criticized Azerbaijan. Tatoyan has previously served as the Human Rights Defender (Ombudsman) of Armenia from 2016-2022. He also served as the Deputy Minister of Justice of the Republic of Armenia and also has been the Deputy Representative of the Government of Armenia before the European Court of Human Rights.
Armenian National Congress – Levon Ter-Petrosyan
Another former president of Armenia with political aspirations in the current Armenian political environment is Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the first president of the independent Republic of Armenia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Thus both the first president and the second president (Robert Kocharyan) are making political maneuvers; if the third president Serzh Sargsyan also joins, as is widely expected, then every single post-independence leader of Armenia will be actively campaigning for the leadership position in 2026. Ter-Petrosyan has not officially announced his intentions for 2026, but the deputy chairman of his party, Levon Zurabyan, has confirmed to media that the Armenian National Congress with Ter-Petrosyan as its head will play “a significant role in the 2026 parliamentary elections.” “Neither the founding president nor the political force he leads can remain indifferent to the current dire situation,” Zurabyan said.
The Armenian National Congress is the successor party to the original Pan-Armenian National Movement (PANM), which was the Armenian nationalist party that led Armenia out of the Soviet Union in 1991 and emerged out of the early Karabakh movement. In 1988, it was the Pan-Armenian National Movement, at that time still suppressed by the Communist Party, that formed the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Council to demand unification of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) with Armenia. When the Soviet Union allowed free elections for the first time in 1990, the PANM, riding a wave of nationalist sentiment, dominated the elections and came to power in Soviet Armenia. Within one year, Armenia led by the PANM would declare independence and Levon Ter-Petrosyan would be elected president with 83% of the vote.
Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s tenure as president of Armenia from 1991 to 1998 was characterized by much of the same economic devastation and collapse that was seen across the former Soviet Union during the 1990s. However, in Armenia the situation was even worse than in other post-Soviet states. The years 1991-1995 are dubbed “The Dark and Cold Years” in Armenia, due to the almost total collapse of energy supplies and basic resources. Armenia’s GDP disintegrated during the 1990s, losing a full two-thirds of its entire economy, and huge numbers of Armenians left the country. Nonetheless, Ter-Petrosyan’s administration succeeded in winning the first Artsakh war, securing Armenian life in Artsakh for 30 years, until all of those territories were then lost by Pashinyan.
After his presidency, Ter-Petrosyan spent many years out of the public eye, focusing instead on his career as a historian. Armenia’s first president did not participate in Armenian politics after 1998, instead devoting years to work on his books: The Crusaders and the Armenians, Volume 1 and Volume 2, as well as Ancient Armenian Translations. The PANM lost all of its seats in the 1999 parliamentary elections, giving way to the era of the right-wing Republic Party of Armenia. After years of obscurity, the party reorganized as the Armenian National Congress in 2013, and has participated in Armenian elections since, with generally low electoral results. Its ideological orientation is now somewhat liberal and pro-Western/European, though it has become critical of Pashinyan recently.
Republican Party of Armenia – Serzh Sargsyan
After the resignation of Levon Ter-Petrosyan in 1998, Armenia entered the twenty year long era of dominance of the Republican Party, which held the majority in parliament throughout the Kocharyan administration (1998-2008) and the administration of Serzh Sargsyan (2008-2018), the third Armenian president.The Republicans’ ideology is based on the early twentieth-century Armenian nationalist movement and the beliefs of the great Armenian nationalist Garegin Nzhdeh. Like the PANM, the Republican Party traces its roots to the early Karabakh movement, except the Republicans were more stridently nationalist than PANM. Indeed, while PANM began as a political faction working within the Gorbachev-era Soviet political system to create the Nagorno-Karabakh council, the Republicans instead trace their roots to the paramilitary Army of Independence, which directly fought the Azeris in Artsakh starting in the late 1988. Thus, the Republican Party is more historically rooted in radical pro-Artsakh and nationalist positions, and it was this that catapulted them to power over the PANM in 1998, as President Ter-Petrostan was forced out of office for being too compromising regarding Artsakh. The Republican Party would pursue a policy of no compromise on Artsakh, which allowed Armenia to hold the disputed territories for the entire duration of Republican rule.
In the 2017 parliamentary elections, the Republicans won 49.17% of the vote and were able to maintain a government with coalition support from the hardline nationalist Armenian Revolutionary Federation, but this government would be subsequently overthrown in the mass protest movement known as the Velvet Revolution in 2018, which propelled Nikol Pashinyan to power. The party became very unpopular after its ouster, and it is associated by critics with oligarchic clan politics, corruption, and authoritarianism. Thus, the party was reduced to just 4 seats in the parliament after receiving 5.22% of the vote in the 2021 elections; however, the party is hoping to recover some of its position in 2026 due to the massive unpopularity of the ruling Civil Contract party.
After his ouster from the presidency, Serzh Sargsyan remained the leader of the Republican Party and continues to lead the party into the 2026 election cycle. Sargsyan has stated that an announcement on his specific plans for 2026 will occur “when the time comes”, but for now, the party is focused on the ongoing parliamentary efforts to impeach Pashinyan.
Samvel Babayan
Samvel Babayan is unique in Armenian politics, having never previously participated in the politics of Armenia, but rather having been the highly prominent defense minister of Artsakh. While many Artsakh officials stayed in Artsakh, allowing themselves to be captured by the Azeris, Babayan made his way to Armenia where he re-entered politics and is now the leader of the small Liberal Party. Babayan has led and participated in several protests in Yerevan recently on behalf of the displaced people of Artsakh, and has been a highly critical voice against the Pashinyan government’s handling of the wars. Babayan has also made extensive commentary on the conduct of the 2020 war from his perspective in Artsakh’s military leadership, giving detailed accounts of the defensive operations carried out in 2020 and what went wrong, casting significant blame on Armenian government leadership. Babayan blames Armenian leadership for such problems as systematic lack of communication between frontline units, as well as careless lack of protection of critical rear positions, leading to severe and avoidable losses among Armenian artillery and air defense assets in the early stages of the war. Babayan asserts that he proposed multiple counterattacks to cut off advancing Azeri forces on the southern front, but was vetoed by Armenian leadership that preferred retreating to more “defensible positions”.
Artur Vanetsyan
On October 7, Babayan announced that his Liberal Party intends to form an electoral alliance with the center-right, moderate opposition Homeland Party, led by Artur Vanetsyan. However, despite their ideological similarities, this alliance was soon rejected by Vanetsyan’s faction, which appears intent on running an independent campaign. Vanetsyan was the director of the Armenian National Security Service prior to being fired by Nikol Pashinyan in 2020. After losing his position as National Security director, Vanetsyan personally led a company of troops in the defense of Shushi against the Azeris, but is accused by critics of having abandoned his positions on the battlefield. Vanetsyan strongly denies this accusation.
Vanetsyan is now an outspoken opponent of Prime Minister Pashinyan, repeatedly calling for him to resign. Nonetheless, much of the Armenian opposition looks with grave skepticism upon the alliance of Babayan and Vanetsyan, two figures strongly associated with the Artsakh wars. While boosting their credibility using wartime experience, these candidates’ parties, the Liberal and Homeland parties, are in fact only moderately ideologically inclined, and are thus viewed by more hardline opposition groups as collaborationists. Some critics have implied that Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party will benefit from using a moderate opposition force to divide the anti-Pashinyan electorate.
Country for Living – Ruben Vardanyan
Yet another major figure of the Artsakh government, Ruben Vardanyan held the highest Artsakh position of any current Armenian political figure, having served as the State Minister (equivalent of Prime Minister) of the Republic of Artsakh from 2022 to 2023, shortly before the final erasure of the country. Vardanyan was technically the third-to-last State Minister of Artsakh (not counting the current State Minister of the government-in-exile), but was the last one to have real political weight, as the final two presided only for matters of weeks over a government on the verge of destruction.
However, Vardanyan’s political clout derives not only from his position in Artsakh. Vardanyan was for many years one of the most recognized Armenian figures in the Russian business community. Vardanyan had achieved the status of billionaire by 2021, having built an extensive portfolio of Russo-Armenian business interests over the years. Among the numerous examples of his business interests, Vardanyan was one of the cofounders of Sberbank CIB, a subsidiary of the large Russian state-owned banking firm Sberbank, in addition to becoming the CEO of the Russian “Rosgosstrakh” insurance company in 2004. Vardanyan is also accused in various media sources of extensive ties to organized crime in the Russian Federation. Nonetheless, Vardanyan has used his position over the years to finance significant projects for the Armenian people. Vardanyan led the Tatev Revival Project to restore the famous medieval Armenian monastery of Tatev in the Syunik province, and also funded the construction of the Holy Transfiguration Cathedral of the Armenian Apostolic Church in Moscow and the restoration of the historic Saint George Armenian Apostolic church in Tbilisi. The first international boarding school in Armenia, UWC Dilijan College in Dilijan, Armenia, was also funded by Vardanyan. After the fall of Artsakh, however, Vardanyan was captured in Artsakh by Azeri forces, and is currently the most prominent Armenian political prisoner held in Azerbaijan, making him a heroic figure in Armenia.
After entering Armenian politics in the 2020s, Vardanyan undertook to endorse the Country for Living party, founded in 2021 in opposition to the Pashinyan government. There is no official confirmation at this time of Vardanyan’s involvement in the 2026 elections, either independently or with the Country for Living party, but this initiative is widely speculated and expected in Armenia. The Country for Living party has achieved some local successes in municipal elections under the leadership of its current chairwoman Mane Tandilyan. Though this party was initially positioned as a centrist force in Armenian politics, it has recently turned more sharply against Nikol Pashinyan, as Tandilyan stated on October 26 that “Nikolism has become a symbol of national humiliation” and emphasizing the current government’s “full-scale campaign against national identity and values.”
Gagik Tsarukyan and Suren Surenyants
While several potential candidates have still not made their official announcements for the 2026 campaign, Gagik Tsarukyan became one of the early official candidates with his campaign confirmation on October 13. The wealthy businessman Gagik Tsarukyan had previously run for office as an opposition candidate two parliamentary elections ago, back in 2018. At that time, Gagik Tsarukyan led the Prosperous Armenia party, which advocates for conservative and traditionalist values and opposes the imposition of Western institutions, such as the EU, on Armenia. In 2018, Prosperous Armenia won 26 seats in the National Assembly, though it is currently not in the parliament.
On October 3, Tsarukyan’s political faction was bolstered by the announcement of an electoral alliance with the Democratic Alternative Party, led by Suren Surenyants. The combined alliance will be called “Armenia’s Proposal”. In its new manifesto, Armenia’s Proposal posits that “We need an alternative: an alternative to the division that has weakened our statehood for decades, an alternative to the flawed laws and decisions that poison the public environment, an alternative to a world model based on the logic of irresponsible decisions and unilateral concessions, and, finally, an alternative to a security policy that has left Armenia without reliable allies.” Surenyants’ party is generally friendly to the regional influence of Russia and Iran, opposes concessions to Azerbaijan and Turkey, and calls for Pashinyan to resign.
Our Way – Samvel Karapetyan
Another major Armenian businessman who is often discussed as a political candidate is Samvel Karapetyan, the owner of the Tashir Group, which operates the Tashir Pizza chain. Karapetyan is, by many estimates, the richest ethnic Armenian in the world. This prominence may explain why he has been actively targeted by the Pashinyan government, which imprisoned him soon after he made comments in defense of the Armenian Apostolic Church against Pashinyan. This prison sentence has not deterred Karapetyan from attempting to influence Armenian politics, as he recently founded the “Our Way” political movement. Though it has not yet been announced that “Our Way” will be campaigning in the 2026 elections, they have nonetheless released a political declaration that generally aligns the movement with Armenian opposition factions and against Pashinyan: they are pro-Artsakh, pro-Church, and pro-“family and national values”. These values contrast from Civil Contract, which abandons Artsakh and persecutes the Church.
Abraham Gasparyan
The nationalist and pro-Artsakh activist Abraham Gasparyan is one more candidate who has hinted at participation in 2026. On September 26, Gasparyan stated, in reference to the elections, “There will be a good opportunity to reveal secrets soon; I will reveal the format later.” Gasparyan is a strongly patriotic Armenian journalist and the founder of the Genesis Armenia think tank. His advocacy in recent times has been heavily focused on Artsakh, which he vows Armenia will some day recover. He recently wrote on social media “There will be a return to Artsakh—a collective one, with smart strategy and spiritually awakened strategic thinking. This is not a dream or a wish but a clear goal, for which we must work effectively—strengthening Armenia, the Diaspora, and reassessing our efforts to preserve national identity and security.” Naturally for somebody who values Artsakh, Gasparyan is stridently against the Pashinyan government, which he describes as the “anti-Armenian authorities”. Gasparyan notes that, in contrast to the weakness of Pashinyan, “Artsakh fought to the last bullet and never surrendered.”
Hayaqve
Finally, the pro-Artsakh and Armenian nationalist organization “Hayaqve” has remained involved in the Armenian political landscape since its inception in 2023 to try to stop the imminent fall of Artsakh. At that time, the organization gathered thousands of signatures for petitions to refuse recognition of Azerbaijan’s conquest of Artsakh and to instead recognize it as Armenian. Though Artsakh would fall soon thereafter, the organization continues to engage in public activism on its behalf, organizing protests and demanding accountability from the Pashinyan government for the disasters surrounding the Artsakh Armenians. Hayaqve’s cofounder, Avetik Chalabyan, has recently called for the arrest and prosecution of Pashinyan.Notably, Hayaqve’s activism has recently attracted the angry attention of Azerbaijani media. Azerbaijani denunciations are, of course, a badge of honor for groups like Hayaqve. Though this group is currently an activist organization and not a political party, the organization is in a period of transformation in anticipation of the 2026 elections, in which they expect to play an active role.
