According to the preliminary results of Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections, three political forces have entered parliament:

  • Civil Contract Party – 49.8%
    • Strong Armenia Alliance – 23.28%
    • Armenia Alliance – 9.93%

The Prosperous Armenia Party has preliminarily failed to clear the 4% threshold required to enter parliament. It is reportedly short by just 0.004% of the vote, approximately 50 votes, and has requested a recount from the Central Electoral Commission.

If Prosperous Armenia Does Not Enter Parliament

If Prosperous Armenia remains below the threshold, its votes will be redistributed among the parties that entered parliament. This could result in the redistribution of approximately five parliamentary seats.

According to calculations cited by lawyer Arpine Hovhannisyan, after applying the Electoral Code formulas, including the allocation of minority seats and vote redistribution, parliament would be composed as follows:

  • Civil Contract: 64 seats (instead of 61)
    • Strong Armenia: 29 seats (instead of 28)
    • Armenia Alliance: 12 seats (instead of 11)

Why 61 vs. 64 Seats Matters

With 61 seats, Civil Contract would be able to form a government but would fall short of the three-fifths (3/5) majority required for many key constitutional decisions.

With 63–64 seats, it would obtain the necessary 3/5 majority.

What the Government Cannot Do Without a 3/5 Majority

Without 3/5 of parliamentary votes, the ruling party cannot unilaterally:

  • Pass or amend constitutional laws, including the Parliamentary Rules of Procedure, Electoral Code, Judicial Code, Constitutional Court Law, Referendum Law, Law on Political Parties, and Human Rights Defender Law.
  • Elect or dismiss Constitutional Court judges, Court of Cassation judges, Supreme Judicial Council members, the Prosecutor General, the Human Rights Defender (Ombudsman), Central Electoral Commission members, Television and Radio Commission members, Audit Chamber members, or the Central Bank Governor.

What the Government Cannot Do Without a 2/3 Majority

Even if Civil Contract reaches a 3/5 majority, it would still be well short of the two-thirds (2/3) majority required for constitutional amendments.

As a result, it would be unable to:

  • Initiate changes to the Constitution’s fundamental provisions.
    • Submit amendments to the Constitution’s core articles to a referendum.
    • Unilaterally advance proposed constitutional reforms, including potential changes to the Constitution’s preamble and its reference to Armenia’s Declaration of Independence.

Key Takeaway

The political significance of Prosperous Armenia’s fate is substantial. If it enters parliament, Civil Contract is projected to remain below the 3/5 threshold. If it fails to enter parliament, seat redistribution could give Civil Contract around 64 seats, granting it a 3/5 supermajority and significantly expanding its institutional powers, though it would still remain short of the 2/3 majority needed for constitutional amendments.