By Romeo Beyron
Trump, peace at any cost?
For the past week, a violent border conflict has opposed Thailand and Cambodia. U.S. President Donald Trump intervened directly. Faced with deadly clashes that have caused dozens of deaths and displaced hundreds of thousands of people, Thailand and Cambodia are currently in discussions with the White House regarding prohibitive tariffs set to impact these two export-dependent economies on August 1st.
“When all is done, and Peace is at hand, I look forward to concluding our Trading Agreements with both!” Trump said. This coercive diplomacy strategy led to a ceasefire mediated by the U.S. and Malaysia, which Trump hailed as a success despite its fragility. Indeed, Thailand has accused Cambodia of violating the ceasefire since Tuesday. Trump’s coercive method cannot guarantee lasting regional peace.
Trump has also expressed his ambition to broker a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But is this really a sincere promotion of lasting peace, or merely a personal political calculation? The president does not hide his desire to win the Nobel Peace Prize, a powerful symbol that would help restore his image as he faces increasing opposition within his own party and from his voters—particularly due to his trade war with several countries, controversial handling of floods in Texas, and the reemergence of the Epstein affair.
However, many experts believe he is still far from achieving this after his decision to cut the budget of the International Development Agency, which could result in the deaths of nearly 14 million people worldwide by 2030, including about 4.5 million children—“an impact comparable to a global pandemic or major armed conflict.”
American Diplomacy at the Heart of the Caucasus
On July 19, 2025, Donald Trump announced that the United States had “worked magic” in negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, stating that peace was “almost concluded.” Following this, Washington reportedly proposed managing a transport corridor connecting Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan through Armenia’s Syunik province, under American supervision for 100 years. While Baku supports the initiative, Yerevan firmly opposes it. Nikol Pashinyan denounced it as an infringement on national sovereignty. His spokesperson clarified that any transit must remain under Armenian control. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, for his part, demands a passage “without Armenian border guards.” This project revives fears in a still unstable post-conflict region. On the Armenian side, there are concerns that this could create a geopolitical breach favoring external interests.
Strategic Interests and Sovereignty at Stake
Behind this mediation, Trump appears to be seeking to strengthen American influence in the Caucasus, where U.S. strategy has lacked clarity and coherence. At the same time, Azerbaijan seems to be a useful ally against Russia and Iran, while also being a key energy partner and an increasing supporter of Israel in the region. Israel sells it many weapons and played a decisive role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Between 2016 and 2020, Israel accounted for 69% of Azerbaijan’s imported weapons.
This corridor exemplifies the U.S. desire to impose a direct presence, far beyond a mere mediator role, at the risk of weakening local sovereignty. Supported also by the EU and Turkey, this proposal is seen by some as a serious political concession endangering Armenian territorial integrity and exacerbating internal tensions. Critics denounce a sacrifice of national interests in favor of short-term diplomatic objectives.
Sources
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Reuters. (2025, July 26). Trump says Thailand, Cambodia agree to hold immediate ceasefire talks. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-says-thailand-cambodia-agree-hold-immediate-ceasefire-talks-2025-07-26/
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