As Armenia gears up for the upcoming snap municipal elections in Gyumri, all eyes are on whether Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party can maintain its influence in the country’s second-largest city. With growing discontent over domestic policies, economic struggles, and security concerns following the Artsakh loss, the opposition sees this as a prime opportunity to challenge Pashinyan’s grip on power.
Ruben Mkhitaryan’s Rising Popularity and the Opposition’s Momentum
Ruben Mkhitaryan, a producer, activist, and opposition figure, has positioned himself as a key contender in Gyumri’s 2025 mayoral race. Leading the newly formed “My Strong Community” party, Mkhitaryan has focused his campaign on local economic development, job creation, and stronger municipal governance, resonating with voters through a grassroots approach. His background in culture and entertainment, particularly his role in the Hayat Project, has further strengthened his appeal, especially among younger and artistic communities in Gyumri.
Despite the growing support for his candidacy, it remains unclear if Mkhitaryan is the clear frontrunner, as there is limited polling data available. However, reports suggest that the ruling Civil Contract party has launched a coordinated campaign against him, including online attacks from government-affiliated figures, indicating that his candidacy is seen as a significant challenge to the current administration.
Mkhitaryan’s opposition stance is centered on addressing local concerns while also being critical of the Armenian government’s handling of post-war security and economic issues. His campaign includes specific promises such as solving Gyumri’s stray dog problem in line with international best practices and promoting tourism by highlighting unique cultural landmarks like the city’s historic 85-year-old barbershop.
Additionally, Mkhitaryan has been linked to discussions about forming a new political force alongside former Ombudsman Arman Tatoyan and former State Revenue Committee head David Ananyan, suggesting that his political ambitions may extend beyond Gyumri’s local elections. However, it remains uncertain whether his party is part of a broader opposition coalition or a newly established independent political entity.
With the election set for March 30, 2025, Mkhitaryan’s campaign is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched in Gyumri’s political history. His blend of cultural influence, grassroots activism, and opposition politics could redefine the city’s leadership while also serving as a potential indicator of broader public dissatisfaction with Pashinyan’s administration.
Why Gyumri Matters
Although Gyumri is not the political capital, it holds significant symbolic weight in Armenian politics. Known for its resilience and deep historical roots, the city has often been a bellwether for national political shifts. A loss for Civil Contract here could further embolden opposition forces across Armenia, signaling a weakening of its national support base.
Furthermore, Gyumri’s strategic location near the Russian military base adds another layer of geopolitical complexity. Moscow’s watchful eye on Armenian politics means that any shift in power dynamics in a major city like Gyumri could have broader implications for Armenia’s foreign policy and security landscape.
Civil Contract’s Strategy and the Challenge Ahead
Pashinyan and his ruling Civil Contract party are not taking the challenge lightly. While his leadership remains a divisive issue, his party is working to rally supporters through promises of infrastructure improvements and continued democratization efforts. However, after years in power, fatigue among voters and lingering dissatisfaction over unfulfilled promises may limit their effectiveness.
To counter Mkhitaryan’s momentum, the government has also attempted to highlight the opposition’s lack of a concrete governing plan, arguing that their platform is built primarily on anti-government sentiment rather than realistic policy solutions. But whether this argument will resonate with Gyumri’s electorate remains to be seen.
What’s at Stake?
Civil Contract’s struggles in Gyumri are not new. In the October 2021 municipal elections, the party gained seats but lost to the Balasanyan Bloc, which remained in control until October 2024, when its leaders, including former mayor Samvel Balasanyan, faced legal action. Accused of illegally privatizing municipal land, Balasanyan fled the country, triggering the mass resignation of Gyumri’s mayor and city council.
In December 2024, Civil Contract held controversial mayoral primaries, appointing Sarik Minasyan as acting mayor—a move widely seen as a trial run to test voter sentiment ahead of the upcoming elections. Meanwhile, since 2021, Pashinyan and Civil Contract’s ratings have steadily declined, reflecting growing dissatisfaction and a shifting political landscape.
Another loss in Gyumri would mark a significant political setback for Civil Contract, coming after its disappointing result in the 2023 Yerevan City Council elections, where it won only 32.57% of the vote and failed to secure a governing majority. A defeat here could energize opposition forces ahead of the next general elections, proving that even Armenia’s second-largest city is slipping from the ruling party’s grasp.
Conversely, a Civil Contract victory would reinforce its claim that, despite mounting opposition, it still holds the trust of Armenian voters. However, even a narrow win would expose deepening divisions and a more competitive political climate.
As Gyumri heads to the polls, the outcome will not only decide the city’s next mayor but could also redefine Armenia’s political trajectory in the years to come.
