By Stella Loretsyan
The Turkish general elections are scheduled to take place on May 14th, 2023. Presidential elections will be held using a two-round system to elect the President of Turkey, while parliamentary elections will be held concurrently to elect 600 Members of Parliament to the Grand National Assembly of Turkey. The newly elected president will serve a term of five years.
The incumbent President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has held the position since 2014 and is the leader of the Justice and Development Party, is the joint candidate for president for the People’s Alliance, which was established in 2018 between the Justice and Development Party and the Nationalist Movement Party. On the other hand, six opposition parties have formed The Nation Alliance for the presidential and parliamentary elections, choosing opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, an economist and leader of the Republican People’s Party, as their unity candidate. Notably, Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu also has the explicit support of Turkey’s second-largest opposition party, the pro-Kurdish HDP. The other two candidates are Sinan Oğan, Ancestral Alliance, and Muharrem İnce, the Homeland Party.
Initially scheduled for June 18th, 2023, the first round of elections was moved forward to May 14th, 2023. President Erdoğan signaled this change on January 18th, 2023, in a symbolic reference to the election victory of former Prime Minister Adnan Menderes on May 14th in the 1950 Turkish general elections.
According to official pre-campaign polling data as of April 30th, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had 43.3% of the vote, while the opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu had 51.9% of the vote. However, according to Politico news organization, as of the 2023 second round Poll of Polls, both candidates received 49% of the vote.
The previous Turkish general elections took place in 2018, resulting in a victory for President Erdoğan, who had held the position since 2014. The 2018 elections marked the country’s transition from a parliamentary system to a presidential one, narrowly endorsed by voters in the 2017 constitutional referendum. Following the elections, the office of the Prime Minister of Turkey was abolished in 2018, effectively transitioning Turkey into a super-presidential country with all features of an authoritarian regime. Prior to becoming President, from 2003-2014, Erdoğan had served as Prime Minister of Turkey.
The 2023 general elections hold immence symbolic and historical significance for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who will likely put forth every possible effort to secure a win.
In a recent interview with Varuzhan Geghamyan, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of Yerevan State University, Geghamyan discussed the significance of these elections for Erdoğan and the potential developments that could occur should an opposition candidate be elected.
What kind of symbolic significance do the 2023 elections have?
The scheduling of the general elections on May 14th is not a coincidence. This day holds symbolic significance in Turkey’s political system, particularly in the ideological realm established by the ruling elite. On May 14th, 1950, after a long period of one-man rule by Kemalists, elections were held, and the newly established Democratic Party won, representing the broader masses of the predominantly Islamic-oriented population. During Erdoğan’s presidency, a unique mythical narration and discourse centered around the Democratic Party and its leader, Adnan Menderes, who became the Prime Minister, was created. Erdoğan has stated on many occasions that Menderes is one of his ideological fathers and that he is his successor. This also has another meaning: as a result of the first successful military coup in 1960, Menderes was hanged, i.e., removed from office. Erdoğan and the pro-Islamic discourse in Turkey consider Menderes a politician martyred for Islam. By scheduling the elections on May 14th, Erdoğan appears to be sending a message to voters, especially those with an Islamic orientation, that they are not only voting for him but also for Adnan Menderes, who was martyred for them.
Will this year’s earthquake have any effect on the election results?
Undoubtedly, the earthquake in February 2023 and its aftermath are important topics in the public domain. Although Erdoğan and the ruling elite managed to prevent it from becoming a priority topic, the problems that arose have not been resolved and continue to exist, albeit not as a priority topic. However, the opposition has not been able to make the earthquake a critical topic in the elections, and Erdoğan has been successful in pushing back against the primary blow in the domain of informational and ideological struggle. While accusations continue, they may not have the expected impact or influence that the opposition was hoping for.
How will the foreign and domestic policy change, if the candidate of the opposition is elected?
From the perspective of Turkish foreign policy, it is unlikely that significant changes will occur in light of the Republic of Turkey’s well-established state institutions and traditions. The country’s history over the past century shows that despite different figures with varying political and ideological orientations, foreign policy decisions have been made in the national interest rather than being influenced by individual preferences. While there may be some preferences, the larger issues remain the same for everyone.
I am sure the same approach to foreign policy issues would continue, if Erdoğan unexpectedly loses the elections, although I consider it unlikely. If we want to figuratively describe what may change, then we can say that the pasta will remain the same, the sauce with which it is served will change. In other words, the major issues in the South Caucasus, Middle East, and other regions will remain unchanged.
As for domestic policy, there may be some differences in it. As with any transfer of power, the new authorities may attempt to maintain the authoritarian system that Erdoğan has established, as it would give them the possibility to have more control and influence in the country. Although the new authorities may announce changes to the domestic political landscape, the political logic suggests these are likely to be cosmetic in nature. There will, however, be significant changes in the informational and ideological fields. Although the main opposition fighting against Erdoğan is composed of forces with different views and does not have a cohesive, unanimous decision or a clear position on various issues, since they are primarily united in their goal to remove Erdoğan from power, rather than sharing a common ideology, however, they will attempt to change the image of Turkey under Erdoğan to a different one where Erdoğan is not seen as an absolute hero, if not a criminal.
