A final “peace agreement” between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains out of reach, according to the U.S. intelligence community’s latest annual threat assessment, despite recent diplomatic momentum.
The report identifies persistent disagreements between the two sides, even after the August 8 summit produced a preliminary framework and plans to reopen regional transport links. Central to this proposal is a U.S.-backed route connecting Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhijevan through southern Armenia, which Washington views as a mechanism to increase regional trade and stability.
At the same time, the assessment explicitly states that key conditions for a deal remain unresolved. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev continues to demand that Armenia amend its constitution to remove language he claims implies territorial claims over Artsakh, a step that would require a national referendum in Armenia, “the passage of which is not guaranteed.” This underscores both the political risk and uncertainty surrounding one of the core sticking points in the negotiations, despite a recent decline in ceasefire violations and limited confidence-building measures.
Yet this framing diverges sharply from how the issue is being presented domestically. Speaking at a press conference today, Nikol Pashinyan described constitutional changes as an internal matter, effectively downplaying their role within the negotiation process:
“The issue of the Declaration of Independence and our Constitution is our internal matter, part of our domestic agenda. It is necessary in order to properly position ourselves in the world.
The Declaration of Independence is a declaration of conflict, and as a result, a declaration of dependence. In the near future, I may also demonstrate this through a textual analysis.”
The gap between these positions highlights a central tension in the process: whether constitutional changes are being pursued as independent domestic reforms, or in practice align with longstanding Azerbaijani preconditions for a final agreement.
